03/06/06

 

77th Annual Oscar(tm) Round-Up


The Masked Reviewer

Please note that these predictions may change before Oscar(tm) night.  The Masked Reviewer needs time to mull, but for the most part, this is probably how the list shall stay.

Oh yeah.  The time that every good reviewer worth his (...or hers) salt loves to dread.  It's OSCAR (tm) time!  Time to put up or shut up.  Who do you think will win?  Who do you think will lose?

Below are the predicted Oscar (tm) winners for this year.  Keep in mind, these predictions are for who will win, not necessarily who should win.  Those are very different questions, more often than not.  In fact, some readers might notice that the Masked Reviewer hasn't even seen all of the films listed below.  Well, that doesn't matter.  The Masked Reviewer knows how to pick the winners.  Over the last few years, he's averaged 74% correct predictions!  That's even better than the  Osca-Matic Deluxe did!  What's that, you ask?  It's a highly scientific Oscar(tm)-winner picker that's entirely automatic. Check out the  Osca-Matic Deluxe or the original Osca-Matic -- FREE!

For more Oscar (tm) Madnress, read the Masked Reviewer's Future Categories Page (longest title, worst actor, tightest pants, most painful on-screen moment, etc).

 

Category The Masked Reviewer's Pick Winner
Best Picture Brokeback Mountain

For those of you who don't know, Hollywood likes to be political once in a while.  By and large, Hollywood people aren't big fans of the Bush administration.  There are also quite a few homosexuals who work in the movie industry (there are quite a few in DC politics, too, but they don't talk about that).  With the growing schism between left and right, Hollywood may make Brokeback Mountain (shouldn't it be "brokenback?") the Best Picture because it will make right-wingers uncomfortable.  Gay sex?  Eeew!  On the other hand, they are cowboys...

Crash
Best Director Ang Lee -- Brokeback Mountain

While Paul Haggis (Crash) did a fine job, and has written a number of good screenplays (Million Dollar Baby), he doesn't have a good track record.  George Clooney, while beloved, same deal.  Bennett Miller...only directed one other film.  That leaves a choice between Munich's Steven Spielberg and Brokeback Mountain's Ang Lee.  Has Munich even been released in theaters?  It certainly hasn't blown anyone away.  Despite his work on The Hulk, Ang Lee is as close as anyone gets for a lock in the Masked Reviewer's book.  He's the talk of the town, too.

Ang Lee
Best Actor Phillip Seymour Hoffman

Three of the four nominees are doing impersonations of real life people.  It should be its own category.  Joaquin Phoenix (no relation to the Phoenix Suns) got a lot of buzz over his portrayal of Johnny Cash.  Same goes for Phillip "Feed Me" Seymour Hoffman as Truman Capote.  There aren't enough old-timers in the Academy anymore to make Good Night, and Good Luck the winner...even though many can personally relate to the story.  Heath Ledger, while in a highly acclaimed movie, probably hasn't done enough "real" work to be rewarded by the academy.  If it comes out in the press that he actually IS gay, he definitely won't win, but even barring that, the Oscar(tm) will probably go to Hoffman because the Academy loves a good impression.

Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Best Actress Judi Dench

How can you not vote for a woman who calls herself "Dame"?  Charlize Theron won for her impressionistic performance a couple of years ago...and North Country is another movie nobody saw.  In fact, who saw any of the nominated films?  The box office is down to 20 year lows...maybe that's because there aren't a lot of movies anyone wants to see.  Anyway, Charlize Theron is unlikely to become the next Tom Hanks, winning every year until the Academy gets sick of her.  Reese Witherspoon hasn't done enough serious work, and despite the fact that KEIRA KNIGHTLEY is insanely hot, how many Academy Awards (tm) can different versions of Pride & Prejudice win?  There can't be that many women voting on the nominees.  Not a single man saw that movie.  Felicity Hufman...who?  Never heard of her.  Go with Dame Judy Dench.

Reese Witherspoon
Best Supporting

Actor

George Clooney

Paul Giamatti is a great actor.  He's great in everything he does.  Consistent greatness deserves to be rewarded, even though he didn't even get nominated for Sideways.  George Clooney would be a close second choice, and everybody loves George Clooney.  Matt Dillon has never matched his level of acting brilliance since There's Something About Mary, and William Hurt...is still working?  Lastly there's Jake Gyllenhaal playing a gay cowboy.  But...he looks too much like Woody from Toy Story to win:

Of course, the Academy(tm) has to give someone the shaft each year, and Paul Giamatti seems like a good choice, so look for 2nd choice George Clooney to bring home the Oscar(tm).

 

George Clooney
Best Supporting

Actress

Rachel Weisz

This is a tough category.  There wasn't a lot of buzz for any supporting actresses this year.  Amy Adams hasn't got a shot...no name recognition in a movie nobody saw.  Catherine Keener might be a possibility.  She was robbed by not being nominated for 40 Year Old Virgin (in case you haven't seen it, she wasn't the virgin).  Frances McDormand is another possibility, but...what's North Country even about?  Do you know?  No, of course you don't.  That leaves Rachel Weisz, who is usually good (and when she isn't, who cares?  Look at her!  She's hot) and she plays a variety of roles.  The Constant Gardener received a bunch of nominations, so it should win for at least one thing and why not this?  No one is going to sweep, because no movie got enough attention this year.  Michelle Williams isn't a big enough name for the award, so it'll probably be Rachel Weisz.

Rachel Weisz
Best

Animated Film

Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit

Every year, the Masked Reviewer picks one film in one category that he really wants to see win.  This is the one.  How'ls Moving Castle is by the Spirited Away guy, and that's the kind of animated movie the Academy loves, so it'll probably win.  But Curse of the Were-Rabbit is everything that a great animated film should be...amazing to watch, funny, and memorable.  Tim Burton's Corpse Bride, created by...uh...what's his name?  That creepy guy with the big head who always wears black...anyway, that was technically impressive but nothing new and kind of a re-hashed Nightmare Before Christmas.  Wallace and Gromit should take this prize, if there's any animated justice in the world.

Wallace & Gromit
Best Foreign

Language Film

Don't Tell

Who knows?  Who cares?  Has anyone seen or heard of any of these?  There's one about molestation, one about French WWI fighters, one about Palestinian bombers, one about WWII survivors, and one about a South African criminal.  That covers all the usual bases of foreign films.  The Academy seems to have finally gotten tired of WWII films, but there's some lingering distaste for the French, so go for the molester or the Palestinian bombers...Don't Tell or Paradise Now.  Guess which is which?  Palestine is probably not the most popular topic since the recent election, so go with the molester.  That's always a safe bet. 

Tsotsi
Best Adapted

Screenplay

Brokeback Mountain

Munich probably won't win anything.  The others are all strong contenders.  Go with Brokeback Mountain because it's going to win more than anyone else, and this seems like a good one that no one would get upset about. 

Brokeback Mountain
Best Original

Screenplay

Crash

Crash got a lot of buzz, and this is the only category that it seems to have a chance in.  Syriana might also be a contender here, but not so much the others.

Crash
Best

Art Direction

King Kong

The Academy will want to recognize Peter Jackson, since it's been almost a year since he received his last award.  The best thing about King Kong was supposedly the 1930's depiction of New York, and that's art direction.  The Masked Reviewer hasn't seen it yet, though.  In fact, of all the Art Direction nominees, he's only seen Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire...and that won't be winning.  It was okay, but something had to be better.  This is the kind of category that Pride & Prejudice or Memoirs of a Geisha would typically take home, but they'll get divided votes with cinematography.

Memoirs of a Geisha
Best

Cinematography

Memoirs of a Geisha

Didn't see it.  It's got to have great cinematography though, right?  That's a movie that relies heavily on cinematography.  How cool would it be if Batman Begins wins?  Pretty cool...but it'll never happen.  Brokeback could very easily take home this award too, though.

Memoirs of a Geisha
Best Sound Walk the Line

An unusual choice here...all we know is that the same film won't win both Sound Mixing and Sound Editing.  Memoirs, King Kong, and War of the Worlds were all nominated for both.  Walk the Line, however, is unlikely to win anything else, and the sound mixing was pretty impressive...if you can make Joaquin Phoenix sound just like Johnny Cash, you deserve to win something.

King Kong
Best

Sound Editing

King Kong

The Masked Reviewer may be way off by picking to wins for King Kong...it didn't come close to living up to box office expectations, so there's a good chance it won't win a darn thing.  But, War of the Worlds is a stretch, and Memoirs of a Geisha...that's not the kind of film that wins Sound Editing.

King Kong
Best

Original Score

Brokeback Mountain

There's got to be a lot of good, dramatic, moving, swelling, gay sex music in this movie.  Another tough crop to choose from, but this is a fine candidate for another quick win for Brokeback Mountain.  Just remember, a lot of people in Hollywood will want to make the right-wingers feel uncomfortable, so the more awards that a movie with gay sex wins, the better.

Brokeback Mountain
Best

Original Song

It's Hard Out There - Hustle & Flow

It's an honor just to be nominated.  The lead guy from Hustle & Flow won't be winning an acting award, and the Academy will want to make sure that African Americans are represented in each year's awards (never disenfranchise your audience, you know).  The other songs probably don't have as much to do with the movie as this one does, and it did get some critical attention.  On the other hand, having seen none of the nominees, it's just a guess.

It's Hard Out There
Best

Costume

Design

Memoirs of a Geisha

They may want to move the awards around more than this...it could possibly go to Pride & Prejudice, but the others are fairly standard costumes.  You don't have to see the movies to get a sense of the costuming.  Charlie and the Chocolate Factory would be an interesting choice, but it doesn't need the award.  Walk the Line didn't really have anything special in the way of costumes, so it's pretty much down to the three period pieces.

Memoirs of a Geisha
Best

Documentary

Feature

March of the Penguins

Oh, come on.  How could this possibly not win.  It's the only documentary film that people have seen.  Ever.  It's popular.  And they even dubbed it in English so it wouldn't have to run as a French foreign language film.  This is about the only lock in this year's awards.

March of the Penguins
Best

Documentary

Short

God Sleeps in Rwanda

Geez.  Why even have this category?  Do the people in the Academy even bother watching these?  Where does an everyday American find these films?  They aren't at Blockbuster. The Masked Reviewer is a film reviewer and hasn't even seen where these films would play.  So, it's just a guess.  One is the story of a photographer who feels bad about the ethics of taking a picture...no chance.  There's one about the Rwandan women left after the bloody genocide in their country...definite potential.  There's a film about survivors 60 years after the atomic bomb...another contender.  And then there's one about a radio broadcaster that most people have never heard of.  Look for God Sleeps in Rwanda or maybe The Mushroom Club (it has nothing to do with pizza toppings or psychedelic drugs).

A Note of...
Best

Film Editing

Cinderella Man

Boxing movies usually have good editing.

The above line is exactly what the Masked Reviewer wrote in this space for Million Dollar Baby last year...and he was wrong.  Each year that a boxing film is nominated, the Masked Reviewer will pick it for best editing.  Come on, Rocky VI!  But, seriously, Cinderella Man has to win something, and this is its best shot at the title.  Unless it's for Best Make-Up

Crash
Best

Make-Up

Chronicles of Narnia: the Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe

Probably unlikely that Cinderella Man will win two awards, but you never know...Hollywood loved the movie, and they love Ron Howard, and it's supposed to be a great movie that nobody was interested in seeing.  Star Wars seems like a longshot...make-up wasn't a key part in a film that was 98% computer animated.    Chornicles of Narnia is just too damn long to win anything.  Not just the film, but the title.  If the Academy members have to write out the titles of their selections by hand, Narnia definitely won't win.  Why can't they cal it Lion, Witch, and Wardrobe?  The Masked Reviewer will tell you why...they want to have a franchise with several films, and they need the Chronicles of Narnia at the front of each movie, so that people know it's a sequel...just like Lord of the Rings. On the other hand, the Academy(tm) will want to vote for a successful franchise...Cinderella Man is less likely than Narnia to spawn sequels.

Chronicles of Narnia
Best

Animated

Short Film

The Moon and the Sun: an Imagined Conversation

Another category that's just spinning the wheel.  All the nominees are fist-timers.  The Academy doesn't usually go for cute and funny (which doesn't bode well for Wallace & Gromit)  so The Moon and The Son: an Imagined Conversation might be a good bet.  On the other hand, the title is so pretentious that it shouldn't win.  It's too long, too.  9 is definitely the right length for a title.  In this category, nominees must have been thinking to themselves "No one cares about this category and they'll be running off for bathroom breaks.  They'll begin playing me off before I can thank everyone I've ever known.  So the only way I can buy more time is to name my film something really long so I get more air time."  Good thinking. 

The Moon and the Sun
Best Live Action

Short Film

The Last Farm

Yikes.  The descriptions of these films are too dull to reproduce here.  Who knows?  None of the choices seem better than the rest.  The Last Farm stars an elderly person, so maybe that'll be what the Academy chooses.  Hard to say. 

Six Shooter
Best

Visual Effects

King Kong

Safe bet...Star Wars wasn't on the list, and the other two nominees didn't look as good in previews.  Although, the big monkey didn't look as incredible as we'd been led to believe.

King Kong

The Masked Reviewer's Percentage (thisyear):

16 right out of 24 (67%)

Two years ago the Masked Reviewer got 16 out of 24 (67%)

Three years ago the Masked Reviewer got 19 out of 24 (79%)

Four years ago the Masked Reviewer got 18 out of 24 correct (75%)

 

Do you think you can predict the Oscars(tm) better than chance?  Click here to try the Masked Reviewer's Auto-Oscar(tm) Picker.  Now that the awards have been given, you can see how good you did right away!  Many of you will get more correct guesses by letting the computer pick than certain reviewers did.

 

This site was last updated 03/06/06

Copyright 2003, Michael D. Lynn