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77th Annual Oscar(tm) Round-Up
The Masked Reviewer
Please note that these predictions may
change before Oscar(tm) night. The Masked Reviewer needs time to
mull, but for the most part, this is probably how the list shall stay.
Oh yeah. The time that every good reviewer worth his (...or hers)
salt loves to dread. It's OSCAR (tm) time! Time to put up or
shut up. Who do you think will win? Who do you think will
lose?
Below are the predicted Oscar (tm) winners for this year. Keep
in mind, these predictions are for who will win, not necessarily
who should win. Those are very different questions, more
often than not. In fact, some readers might notice that the Masked
Reviewer hasn't even seen all of the films listed below.
Well, that doesn't matter. The Masked Reviewer knows how to pick
the winners. Over the last few years, he's averaged 74% correct
predictions! That's even better than the
Osca-Matic Deluxe did! What's
that, you ask? It's a highly scientific Oscar(tm)-winner picker
that's entirely automatic. Check out the
Osca-Matic Deluxe or the original
Osca-Matic -- FREE!
For more Oscar (tm) Madnress, read the Masked Reviewer's Future
Categories Page (longest title, worst actor, tightest pants, most
painful on-screen moment, etc).
Category |
The Masked Reviewer's Pick |
Winner |
Best Picture |
Brokeback Mountain
For those of you who don't know, Hollywood likes to be political
once in a while. By and large, Hollywood people aren't big
fans of the Bush administration. There are also quite a few
homosexuals who work in the movie industry (there are quite a few in
DC politics, too, but they don't talk about that). With the
growing schism between left and right, Hollywood may make
Brokeback Mountain (shouldn't it be "brokenback?") the Best
Picture because it will make right-wingers uncomfortable. Gay
sex? Eeew! On the other hand, they are cowboys... |
Crash |
Best Director |
Ang Lee -- Brokeback Mountain While
Paul Haggis (Crash) did a fine job, and has written a number
of good screenplays (Million Dollar Baby), he doesn't have a
good track record. George Clooney, while beloved, same deal.
Bennett Miller...only directed one other film. That leaves a
choice between Munich's Steven Spielberg and Brokeback
Mountain's Ang Lee. Has Munich even been released
in theaters? It certainly hasn't blown anyone away.
Despite his work on The Hulk, Ang Lee is as close as anyone
gets for a lock in the Masked Reviewer's book. He's the talk
of the town, too. |
Ang Lee |
Best Actor |
Phillip Seymour Hoffman Three of the
four nominees are doing impersonations of real life people. It
should be its own category. Joaquin Phoenix (no relation to
the Phoenix Suns) got a lot of buzz over his portrayal of Johnny
Cash. Same goes for Phillip "Feed Me" Seymour Hoffman as
Truman Capote. There aren't enough old-timers in the Academy
anymore to make Good Night, and Good Luck the winner...even
though many can personally relate to the story. Heath Ledger,
while in a highly acclaimed movie, probably hasn't done enough
"real" work to be rewarded by the academy. If it comes out in
the press that he actually IS gay, he definitely won't win, but even
barring that, the Oscar(tm) will probably go to Hoffman because the
Academy loves a good impression. |
Phillip Seymour Hoffman |
Best Actress |
Judi Dench How can you not vote for a
woman who calls herself "Dame"? Charlize Theron won for her
impressionistic performance a couple of years ago...and North
Country is another movie nobody saw. In fact, who saw
any of the nominated films? The box office is down to 20
year lows...maybe that's because there aren't a lot of movies anyone
wants to see. Anyway, Charlize Theron is unlikely to become
the next Tom Hanks, winning every year until the Academy gets sick
of her. Reese Witherspoon hasn't done enough serious work, and
despite the fact that KEIRA KNIGHTLEY is insanely hot, how many
Academy Awards (tm) can different versions of Pride & Prejudice
win? There can't be that many women voting on the
nominees. Not a single man saw that movie. Felicity
Hufman...who? Never heard of her. Go with Dame Judy
Dench. |
Reese Witherspoon |
Best Supporting
Actor |
George Clooney Paul Giamatti is a
great actor. He's great in everything he does.
Consistent greatness deserves to be rewarded, even though he didn't
even get nominated for Sideways. George Clooney would
be a close second choice, and everybody loves George Clooney.
Matt Dillon has never matched his level of acting brilliance since
There's Something About Mary, and William Hurt...is still
working? Lastly there's Jake Gyllenhaal playing a gay cowboy.
But...he looks too much like Woody from Toy Story to win:
Of course, the Academy(tm) has to give someone the shaft each year,
and Paul Giamatti seems like a good choice, so look for 2nd choice
George Clooney to bring home the Oscar(tm). |
George Clooney |
Best Supporting
Actress |
Rachel Weisz This is a tough
category. There wasn't a lot of buzz for any supporting
actresses this year. Amy Adams hasn't got a shot...no name
recognition in a movie nobody saw. Catherine Keener might be a
possibility. She was robbed by not being nominated for 40
Year Old Virgin (in case you haven't seen it, she wasn't the
virgin). Frances McDormand is another possibility,
but...what's North Country even about? Do you know?
No, of course you don't. That leaves Rachel Weisz, who is
usually good (and when she isn't, who cares? Look at her!
She's hot) and she plays a variety of roles. The Constant
Gardener received a bunch of nominations, so it should win for
at least one thing and why not this? No one is going to sweep,
because no movie got enough attention this year. Michelle
Williams isn't a big enough name for the award, so it'll probably be
Rachel Weisz. |
Rachel Weisz |
Best
Animated Film |
Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Every year, the Masked Reviewer picks one film in one category that
he really wants to see win. This is the one. How'ls
Moving Castle is by the Spirited Away guy, and that's the
kind of animated movie the Academy loves, so it'll probably win.
But Curse of the Were-Rabbit is everything that a great
animated film should be...amazing to watch, funny, and memorable.
Tim Burton's Corpse Bride, created by...uh...what's his name?
That creepy guy with the big head who always wears black...anyway,
that was technically impressive but nothing new and kind of a
re-hashed Nightmare Before Christmas. Wallace and
Gromit should take this prize, if there's any animated justice in
the world. |
Wallace & Gromit |
Best Foreign
Language Film |
Don't Tell Who knows? Who
cares? Has anyone seen or heard of any of these? There's
one about molestation, one about French WWI fighters, one about
Palestinian bombers, one about WWII survivors, and one about a South
African criminal. That covers all the usual bases of foreign
films. The Academy seems to have finally gotten tired of WWII
films, but there's some lingering distaste for the French, so go for
the molester or the Palestinian bombers...Don't Tell or
Paradise Now. Guess which is which? Palestine is
probably not the most popular topic since the recent election, so go
with the molester. That's always a safe bet. |
Tsotsi |
Best Adapted
Screenplay |
Brokeback Mountain Munich
probably won't win anything. The others are all strong
contenders. Go with Brokeback Mountain because it's
going to win more than anyone else, and this seems like a good one
that no one would get upset about. |
Brokeback Mountain |
Best Original
Screenplay |
Crash
Crash got a lot of buzz, and this is the only category that
it seems to have a chance in. Syriana might also be a
contender here, but not so much the others. |
Crash |
Best
Art Direction |
King Kong
The Academy will want to recognize Peter Jackson, since it's been
almost a year since he received his last award. The best thing
about King Kong was supposedly the 1930's depiction of New
York, and that's art direction. The Masked Reviewer hasn't
seen it yet, though. In fact, of all the Art Direction
nominees, he's only seen Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire...and
that won't be winning. It was okay, but something had to be
better. This is the kind of category that Pride & Prejudice
or Memoirs of a Geisha would typically take home, but they'll
get divided votes with cinematography. |
Memoirs of a Geisha |
Best
Cinematography |
Memoirs of a Geisha Didn't see it.
It's got to have great cinematography though, right? That's a
movie that relies heavily on cinematography. How cool would it
be if Batman Begins wins? Pretty cool...but it'll never
happen. Brokeback could very easily take home this
award too, though. |
Memoirs of a Geisha |
Best Sound |
Walk the Line
An unusual choice here...all we know is that the same film won't win
both Sound Mixing and Sound Editing. Memoirs, King Kong,
and War of the Worlds were all nominated for both. Walk
the Line, however, is unlikely to win anything else, and the
sound mixing was pretty impressive...if you can make Joaquin Phoenix
sound just like Johnny Cash, you deserve to win something. |
King Kong |
Best
Sound Editing |
King Kong
The Masked Reviewer may be way off by picking to wins for King
Kong...it didn't come close to living up to box office
expectations, so there's a good chance it won't win a darn thing.
But, War of the Worlds is a stretch, and Memoirs of a
Geisha...that's not the kind of film that wins Sound Editing. |
King Kong |
Best
Original Score |
Brokeback Mountain There's got to be
a lot of good, dramatic, moving, swelling, gay sex music in this
movie. Another tough crop to choose from, but this is a fine
candidate for another quick win for Brokeback Mountain.
Just remember, a lot of people in Hollywood will want to make the
right-wingers feel uncomfortable, so the more awards that a movie
with gay sex wins, the better. |
Brokeback Mountain |
Best
Original Song |
It's Hard Out There - Hustle & Flow
It's an honor just to be nominated. The lead guy from
Hustle & Flow won't be winning an acting award, and the Academy
will want to make sure that African Americans are represented in
each year's awards (never disenfranchise your audience, you know).
The other songs probably don't have as much to do with the movie as
this one does, and it did get some critical attention. On the
other hand, having seen none of the nominees, it's just a guess. |
It's Hard Out There |
Best
Costume
Design |
Memoirs of a Geisha
They may want to move the awards around more than this...it could
possibly go to Pride & Prejudice, but the others are fairly
standard costumes. You don't have to see the movies to get a
sense of the costuming. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
would be an interesting choice, but it doesn't need the award.
Walk the Line didn't really have anything special in the way
of costumes, so it's pretty much down to the three period pieces. |
Memoirs of a Geisha |
Best
Documentary
Feature |
March of the Penguins Oh, come on.
How could this possibly not win. It's the only
documentary film that people have seen. Ever. It's
popular. And they even dubbed it in English so it wouldn't
have to run as a French foreign language film. This is about
the only lock in this year's awards. |
March of the Penguins |
Best
Documentary
Short |
God Sleeps in Rwanda
Geez. Why even have this category? Do the people in the
Academy even bother watching these? Where does an everyday
American find these films? They aren't at Blockbuster. The
Masked Reviewer is a film reviewer and hasn't even seen where these
films would play. So, it's just a guess. One is the
story of a photographer who feels bad about the ethics of taking a
picture...no chance. There's one about the Rwandan women left
after the bloody genocide in their country...definite potential.
There's a film about survivors 60 years after the atomic
bomb...another contender. And then there's one about a radio
broadcaster that most people have never heard of. Look for
God Sleeps in Rwanda or maybe The Mushroom Club (it has
nothing to do with pizza toppings or psychedelic drugs). |
A Note of... |
Best
Film Editing |
Cinderella Man
Boxing movies usually have good editing.
The above line is exactly what the Masked Reviewer wrote in this
space for Million Dollar Baby last year...and he was wrong.
Each year that a boxing film is nominated, the Masked Reviewer will
pick it for best editing. Come on, Rocky VI! But,
seriously, Cinderella Man has to win something, and this is
its best shot at the title. Unless it's for Best Make-Up |
Crash |
Best
Make-Up |
Chronicles of Narnia: the Lion, the Witch, and
the Wardrobe
Probably unlikely that Cinderella Man will win two awards,
but you never know...Hollywood loved the movie, and they love Ron
Howard, and it's supposed to be a great movie that nobody was
interested in seeing. Star Wars seems like a longshot...make-up
wasn't a key part in a film that was 98% computer animated.
Chornicles of Narnia is just too damn long to win anything.
Not just the film, but the title. If the Academy members have
to write out the titles of their selections by hand, Narnia
definitely won't win. Why can't they cal it Lion, Witch,
and Wardrobe? The Masked Reviewer will tell you why...they
want to have a franchise with several films, and they need the
Chronicles of Narnia at the front of each movie, so that people
know it's a sequel...just like Lord of the Rings. On the
other hand, the Academy(tm) will want to vote for a successful
franchise...Cinderella Man is less likely than Narnia
to spawn sequels. |
Chronicles of Narnia |
Best
Animated
Short Film |
The Moon and the Sun: an Imagined Conversation Another category that's
just spinning the wheel. All the nominees are fist-timers.
The Academy doesn't usually go for cute and funny (which doesn't
bode well for Wallace & Gromit) so The Moon and The
Son: an Imagined Conversation might be a good bet. On the
other hand, the title is so pretentious that it shouldn't win.
It's too long, too. 9 is definitely the right length
for a title. In this category, nominees must have been
thinking to themselves "No one cares about this category and they'll
be running off for bathroom breaks. They'll begin playing me
off before I can thank everyone I've ever known. So the only
way I can buy more time is to name my film something really long so
I get more air time." Good thinking. |
The Moon and the Sun |
Best Live Action
Short Film |
The Last Farm
Yikes. The descriptions of these films are too dull to
reproduce here. Who knows? None of the choices seem
better than the rest. The Last Farm stars an elderly
person, so maybe that'll be what the Academy chooses. Hard to
say. |
Six Shooter |
Best
Visual Effects |
King Kong
Safe bet...Star Wars wasn't on the list, and the other two
nominees didn't look as good in previews. Although, the big
monkey didn't look as incredible as we'd been led to believe. |
King Kong |
The Masked Reviewer's Percentage (thisyear):
16 right out of 24 (67%)
Two years ago the Masked Reviewer got
16 out of 24 (67%)
Three years ago the Masked Reviewer got
19 out of 24 (79%)
Four years ago the Masked Reviewer got
18 out of 24 correct (75%)
Do you think you can predict the Oscars(tm) better than chance?
Click here to try the Masked Reviewer's Auto-Oscar(tm) Picker.
Now that the awards have been given, you can see how good you did right
away! Many of you will get more correct guesses by letting the
computer pick than certain reviewers did.
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This site was last updated
03/06/06
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